diff --git a/lyra/equity.py b/lyra/equity.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..125a8f1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/lyra/equity.py
@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+"""Deterministic poker evaluation + equity — the math Lyra must NEVER eyeball.
+
+Wraps `treys` so board reading (what each hand makes), who's ahead, exact equity,
+and outs are *computed*, not guessed by the LLM (which is unreliable at it). Cards
+are 'Rs' (rank + suit letter, e.g. 'Jh','Td'); a card with unknown suit ('Jx') is
+assigned an arbitrary free suit; a fully-unknown 'x' can't be used for equity.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from itertools import combinations
+
+from treys import Card, Evaluator
+
+_EV = Evaluator()
+_RANKS = "23456789TJQKA"
+_SUITS = "shdc"
+_DECK = [r + s for r in _RANKS for s in _SUITS]
+_SYM = {"♥": "h", "♦": "d", "♣": "c", "♠": "s"}
+
+
+class EquityError(ValueError):
+    pass
+
+
+def _norm(tok: str) -> str:
+    t = (tok or "").strip().replace("10", "T")
+    for sym, ltr in _SYM.items():
+        t = t.replace(sym, ltr)
+    return t
+
+
+def _resolve(groups: list[list[str]]) -> list[list[str]]:
+    """Resolve card tokens across groups to concrete 'Rs' cards (assign suits to
+    'Rx', reject fully-unknown 'x'); raise on real duplicates/garbage."""
+    # concrete cards already named, so 'Rx' suit-assignment can avoid them
+    concrete: set[str] = set()
+    for g in groups:
+        for tok in g:
+            t = _norm(tok)
+            if len(t) == 2 and t[0].upper() in _RANKS and t[1].lower() in _SUITS:
+                concrete.add(t[0].upper() + t[1].lower())
+    placed: set[str] = set()
+    out: list[list[str]] = []
+    cycle = 0  # rotate suit assignment for unknown suits so we don't fabricate flushes
+    for g in groups:
+        rg: list[str] = []
+        for tok in g:
+            t = _norm(tok)
+            if not t or t.lower() == "x":
+                raise EquityError(f"card '{tok}' is fully unknown — need at least a rank")
+            r = t[0].upper()
+            if r not in _RANKS:
+                raise EquityError(f"can't read card '{tok}'")
+            if len(t) > 1 and t[1].lower() in _SUITS:
+                card = r + t[1].lower()
+            else:  # unknown suit -> spread suits (rainbow) to avoid phantom flushes
+                order = _SUITS[cycle % 4:] + _SUITS[:cycle % 4]
+                cycle += 1
+                card = next((r + s for s in order
+                             if r + s not in concrete and r + s not in placed), None)
+                if card is None:
+                    raise EquityError(f"no free suit left for {r}")
+            if card in placed:
+                raise EquityError(f"duplicate card {card}")
+            placed.add(card)
+            rg.append(card)
+        out.append(rg)
+    return out
+
+
+def _made(cards: list[str], board: list[str]) -> str:
+    score = _EV.evaluate([Card.new(c) for c in board], [Card.new(c) for c in cards])
+    return _EV.class_to_string(_EV.get_rank_class(score))
+
+
+def _equity(hero: list[str], vil: list[str], board: list[str]) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
+    known = set(hero + vil + board)
+    rem = [c for c in _DECK if c not in known]
+    need = 5 - len(board)
+    hw = vw = tie = 0
+    bh = [Card.new(c) for c in board]
+    hh = [Card.new(c) for c in hero]
+    vh = [Card.new(c) for c in vil]
+    for extra in combinations(rem, need) if need else [()]:
+        full = bh + [Card.new(c) for c in extra]
+        h, v = _EV.evaluate(full, hh), _EV.evaluate(full, vh)
+        if h < v:
+            hw += 1
+        elif v < h:
+            vw += 1
+        else:
+            tie += 1
+    n = hw + vw + tie or 1
+    return round(100 * hw / n, 1), round(100 * vw / n, 1), round(100 * tie / n, 1)
+
+
+def _outs(hero: list[str], vil: list[str], board: list[str]) -> dict:
+    """River cards (when one to come) that give hero the win. Lists them so a
+    'tricky' card (e.g. one that makes villain a flush) is visible by omission."""
+    if len(board) != 4:
+        return {}
+    known = set(hero + vil + board)
+    bh = [Card.new(c) for c in board]
+    hh = [Card.new(c) for c in hero]
+    vh = [Card.new(c) for c in vil]
+    winners = []
+    for c in (x for x in _DECK if x not in known):
+        full = bh + [Card.new(c)]
+        if _EV.evaluate(full, hh) < _EV.evaluate(full, vh):
+            winners.append(c)
+    return {"count": len(winners), "cards": winners}
+
+
+def analyze(hero: list[str], villain: list[str], board: list[str]) -> dict:
+    """Made hands + exact equity + outs for a hero-vs-villain spot at a given board."""
+    h, v, b = _resolve([hero, villain, board])
+    allc = h + v + b
+    if len(set(allc)) != len(allc):
+        raise EquityError("duplicate cards across hands/board")
+    res: dict = {"hero": h, "villain": v, "board": b}
+    if len(b) >= 3:
+        res["hero_hand"] = _made(h, b)
+        res["villain_hand"] = _made(v, b)
+        hs = _EV.evaluate([Card.new(c) for c in b], [Card.new(c) for c in h])
+        vs = _EV.evaluate([Card.new(c) for c in b], [Card.new(c) for c in v])
+        res["ahead"] = "hero" if hs < vs else "villain" if vs < hs else "tie"
+    heq, veq, tie = _equity(h, v, b)
+    res.update(hero_equity=heq, villain_equity=veq, tie_equity=tie)
+    if len(b) == 4:
+        res["hero_outs"] = _outs(h, v, b)
+    return res
diff --git a/lyra/personas/lyra.md b/lyra/personas/lyra.md
index 2e6d991..c0e3a6a 100644
--- a/lyra/personas/lyra.md
+++ b/lyra/personas/lyra.md
@@ -97,11 +97,16 @@ inventing a mechanism — same rule as not inventing numbers.
 
 ## What you do NOT do
 
-- **You do not invent numbers.** You do not compute exact ICM, equities, or
-  pot-odds in your head and present them as fact. The deterministic solver tools
-  aren't wired up yet, so when precise math is needed, be honest: give the
-  qualitative read and flag that the exact number needs the calc. Approximate
-  reasoning is fine if you label it as approximate.
+- **You never eyeball poker math or board reading.** For equity, who's ahead,
+  what a hand makes, what a card completes, draws, or outs — call the
+  `analyze_spot` tool and report ITS numbers. You are genuinely unreliable at
+  reading boards and counting equity in your head (you'll hallucinate flushes,
+  miss straights, misjudge who's ahead) — the tool is exact. Never state an
+  equity %, a made hand, "you're ahead/drawing dead", or an out count without it.
+- **You do not invent other numbers either.** Exact ICM and solver outputs aren't
+  wired up yet (RTO/cfr-core), so for those be honest: give the qualitative read
+  and flag that the precise number needs the calc. Approximate reasoning is fine
+  if you label it approximate.
 - You don't pretend to remember things you don't. If you're not sure, say so.
 - **You don't invent reads on players.** Before you say *anything* about a
   specific opponent, you MUST call the `player_profile` tool and answer ONLY from
diff --git a/lyra/tools.py b/lyra/tools.py
index 8b20ee8..3e21973 100644
--- a/lyra/tools.py
+++ b/lyra/tools.py
@@ -10,8 +10,9 @@ the same way once we build that side.
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import json
+import re
 
-from lyra import logbus, memory, poker
+from lyra import equity, logbus, memory, poker
 
 
 def _journal_write(args: dict, ctx: dict) -> str:
@@ -173,6 +174,31 @@ def _generate_recap(args: dict, ctx: dict) -> str:
             f"at /recap/{out['id']}")
 
 
+def _analyze_spot(args: dict, ctx: dict) -> str:
+    def cards(s):
+        return [c for c in re.split(r"[\s,]+", (s or "").strip()) if c]
+    try:
+        r = equity.analyze(cards(args.get("hero")), cards(args.get("villain")),
+                           cards(args.get("board")))
+    except equity.EquityError as e:
+        return f"(can't compute equity: {e})"
+    except Exception as e:  # never let a bad spot kill the turn
+        return f"(equity error: {e})"
+    street = {0: "preflop", 3: "flop", 4: "turn", 5: "river"}.get(len(r["board"]), "")
+    L = [f"Board: {' '.join(r['board']) or '(preflop)'}" + (f" — {street}" if street else "")]
+    if "hero_hand" in r:
+        L.append(f"You ({' '.join(r['hero'])}): {r['hero_hand']}")
+        L.append(f"Villain ({' '.join(r['villain'])}): {r['villain_hand']}")
+        L.append(f"Currently ahead: {r['ahead']}")
+    tie = f" / tie {r['tie_equity']}%" if r.get("tie_equity") else ""
+    L.append(f"EQUITY (exact): you {r['hero_equity']}% / villain {r['villain_equity']}%{tie}")
+    o = r.get("hero_outs")
+    if o:
+        L.append(f"Your outs (one card to come): {o['count']}"
+                 + (f" — {' '.join(o['cards'])}" if o["count"] else " — drawing dead"))
+    return "\n".join(L)
+
+
 def _player_profile(args: dict, ctx: dict) -> str:
     prof = poker.player_profile(args.get("name") or "")
     if not prof:
@@ -302,6 +328,15 @@ TOOLS.update({
         "data + this conversation. Use when he asks for the recap/writeup, usually "
         "after ending a session.",
         {}, [])},
+    "analyze_spot": {"handler": _analyze_spot, "spec": _f(
+        "analyze_spot",
+        "Compute EXACT poker equity, what each hand makes, who's ahead, and outs "
+        "for a hero-vs-villain spot. ALWAYS use this for any equity / board-reading "
+        "/ 'am I ahead' / outs question — never compute it yourself.",
+        {"hero": {**_S, "description": "Hero's hole cards, rank+suit letters, e.g. 'Jh Js' (use 'Jx' if a suit is unknown)"},
+         "villain": {**_S, "description": "Villain's hole cards, e.g. '6d 5d'"},
+         "board": {**_S, "description": "Board cards so far, e.g. '8c 7d Ts' (flop) or '8c 7d Ts 4d' (turn); omit for preflop"}},
+        ["hero", "villain"])},
     "player_profile": {"handler": _player_profile, "spec": _f(
         "player_profile",
         "Look up everything known about one opponent — dossier, reads, hands "
diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml
index 0174d2a..451c31d 100644
--- a/pyproject.toml
+++ b/pyproject.toml
@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ dependencies = [
     "numpy>=2.4.5",
     "openai>=2.37.0",
     "python-dotenv>=1.2.2",
+    "treys>=0.1.8",
     "uvicorn[standard]>=0.34",
 ]
 
diff --git a/tests/test_equity.py b/tests/test_equity.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7004d7a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_equity.py
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+"""Deterministic equity/board-eval — the JJ-vs-65 hand Lyra kept botching."""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pytest
+
+from lyra import equity
+
+
+def test_flop_equity_and_made_hands():
+    r = equity.analyze(["Jh", "Js"], ["6d", "5d"], ["8c", "7d", "Ts"])
+    assert r["ahead"] == "hero"
+    assert r["hero_hand"] == "Pair" and r["villain_hand"] == "High Card"
+    assert 75 < r["hero_equity"] < 82  # ~78.7%
+
+
+def test_turn_villain_straight_and_outs_exclude_flush_card():
+    r = equity.analyze(["Jh", "Js"], ["6d", "5d"], ["8c", "7d", "Ts", "4d"])
+    assert r["ahead"] == "villain"
+    assert r["villain_hand"] == "Straight"
+    # hero's only outs are the three non-diamond nines — 9d makes villain a flush
+    assert r["hero_outs"]["count"] == 3
+    assert "9d" not in r["hero_outs"]["cards"]
+    assert r["hero_equity"] < 10
+
+
+def test_rejects_unknown_and_duplicate_cards():
+    with pytest.raises(equity.EquityError):
+        equity.analyze(["x", "x"], ["6d", "5d"], ["8c", "7d", "Ts"])
+    with pytest.raises(equity.EquityError):
+        equity.analyze(["8c", "8c"], ["6d", "5d"], ["8c", "7d", "Ts"])
+
+
+def test_unknown_suits_spread_rainbow_no_phantom_flush():
+    # all-unknown-suit board must not become monotone (which would inflate equity)
+    r = equity.analyze(["Jx", "Jx"], ["6d", "5d"], ["8x", "7x", "Tx"])
+    assert 75 < r["hero_equity"] < 82
+
+
+def test_tool_dispatch():
+    from lyra import tools
+    out = tools.dispatch("analyze_spot", {"hero": "Jh Js", "villain": "6d 5d", "board": "8c 7d Ts 4d"})
+    assert "EQUITY" in out and "Straight" in out
diff --git a/uv.lock b/uv.lock
index b83f791..eb0d154 100644
--- a/uv.lock
+++ b/uv.lock
@@ -286,6 +286,7 @@ dependencies = [
     { name = "numpy" },
     { name = "openai" },
     { name = "python-dotenv" },
+    { name = "treys" },
     { name = "uvicorn", extra = ["standard"] },
 ]
 
@@ -302,6 +303,7 @@ requires-dist = [
     { name = "numpy", specifier = ">=2.4.5" },
     { name = "openai", specifier = ">=2.37.0" },
     { name = "python-dotenv", specifier = ">=1.2.2" },
+    { name = "treys", specifier = ">=0.1.8" },
     { name = "uvicorn", extras = ["standard"], specifier = ">=0.34" },
 ]
 
@@ -692,6 +694,15 @@ wheels = [
     { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/16/e1/3079a9ff9b8e11b846c6ac5c8b5bfb7ff225eee721825310c91b3b50304f/tqdm-4.67.3-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:ee1e4c0e59148062281c49d80b25b67771a127c85fc9676d3be5f243206826bf", size = 78374, upload-time = "2026-02-03T17:35:50.982Z" },
 ]
 
+[[package]]
+name = "treys"
+version = "0.1.8"
+source = { registry = "https://pypi.org/simple" }
+sdist = { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/3b/a6/1712340dc1ac96d40afe162d43ce146c7781ba59cde5efc988aaee35ada4/treys-0.1.8.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:a486a42b899e91985b4da4fdac9a30e638275648977104487acb90a2dd7cd73b", size = 12073, upload-time = "2022-06-21T16:02:44.976Z" }
+wheels = [
+    { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/46/df/e6b3b1cc98c3e00c5b146113f998dfe0de47358277648df235a6ae571143/treys-0.1.8-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:9ba3460ff2ed597510fb535af6280f115254b0b70699ea362f8f1ee067378063", size = 11897, upload-time = "2022-06-21T16:02:42.896Z" },
+]
+
 [[package]]
 name = "typing-extensions"
 version = "4.15.0"