feat: dream-cycle merge scan + pattern desk (leak recall)

Phases 5 & 6, completing the scouting desk.

Phase 5 — the nightly consolidation (dream cycle, coherence block) now runs
poker.scan_merge_candidates(), filing likely same-person merges to the review
queue off the hot path. Fail-safe: a scan error never sinks the cycle.

Phase 6 — "you've hit this leak before". Scar/confidence notes are embedded on
write; recall_similar_rituals() finds past ones close to the current spot,
excluding tonight. The scouting desk adds a pattern pass that surfaces them — but
ONLY on genuine strategy/tilt talk (a length + cue gate), so routine logging like
"stack 350" never pays for an embed. Respects the per-turn latency concern.

7 tests (deterministic embed stub to keep threshold assertions stable). Full
suite 153 green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

lyra/scouting.py

@@ -23,6 +23,20 @@ _DESC_PATTERNS = (
 )
 _MIN_NAME = 3
 
+# Cues that a message is a strategy/spot/tilt discussion — the only turns worth
+# paying an embed to recall past leaks. Keeps the pattern pass off routine logging.
+_STRAT_CUES = (
+    "fold", "call", "raise", "bluff", "river", "turn", "flop", "tilt", "punt",
+    "leak", "should i", "hero", "value", "overbet", "spew", "stack off", "3bet",
+    "4bet", "check-raise", "checkraise", "range", "board", "steaming", "felted",
+    "all in", "all-in", "shoved", "jammed", "snap", "sizing",
+)
+
+
+def _looks_strategic(msg: str) -> bool:
+    low = msg.lower()
+    return len(msg) >= 40 and any(c in low for c in _STRAT_CUES)
+
 
 def _named_hits(msg: str) -> list[int]:
     """Ids of known *named* villains whose name appears as a word in the message."""
@@ -113,12 +127,26 @@ def scout(user_msg: str, venue: str | None = None, session_id: int | None = None
                     context=f'Brian referred to "{span}"', session_id=session_id,
                     confidence=res["confidence"])
 
-        if not lines:
+        # Pattern desk: on genuine strategy talk, recall his own past leaks/wins in
+        # similar spots. Gated so routine logging never pays for an embed.
+        pattern: list[str] = []
+        if _looks_strategic(msg):
+            for r in poker.recall_similar_rituals(msg, exclude_session=session_id):
+                tag = "leak" if r["kind"] == "scar" else "banked"
+                cls = f"/{r['classification']}" if r.get("classification") else ""
+                when = f" ({str(r['when'])[:10]})" if r.get("when") else ""
+                pattern.append(f"[{tag}{cls}]{when} {r['content']}")
+
+        if not lines and not pattern:
             return None
-        logbus.log("info", "scouting desk", hits=len(lines))
-        return ("SCOUTING DESK — structured recall for players in his message (cite it, "
-                "don't invent; if unsure it's the same person, ask him):\n• "
-                + "\n• ".join(lines))
+        logbus.log("info", "scouting desk", hits=len(lines), patterns=len(pattern))
+        out = "SCOUTING DESK — structured recall for his message (cite it, don't invent; " \
+              "if unsure it's the same person, ask him):"
+        if lines:
+            out += "\n• " + "\n• ".join(lines)
+        if pattern:
+            out += "\nYou've been in a spot like this before —\n• " + "\n• ".join(pattern)
+        return out
     except Exception as exc:  # desk must never break a turn
         logbus.log("error", "scouting desk failed", error=str(exc)[:160])
         return None